US PresswireThe Super Bowl is coming up. Which one of these guys do Vegas wiseguys like?
I've been trying to make these line moves columns during the playoffs extra special. Instead of just one guy firing off on several games, I've offered 360-degree views of each game by bringing in multiple voices. The idea was to show how very sharp bettors and bookmakers can see things differently, whether it's because of homemade stats, gut instinct or situations. Everyone has an opinion, but not everyone can be right.
And that is certainly the case for Super Bowl XLV. This line is tighter than an
Aaron Rodgersspiral and has been from almost the moment it opened. That's what happens at this point in the NFL season. One game remains and it comes on the heels of nearly a month of high-visibility football. At this point, anyone betting anything worth moving the line has seen enough of the two teams to come to the same conclusion bookmakers did as soon as the AFC title game ended: The
Green Bay Packers are a little bit better than the
Pittsburgh Steelers.
When the line was first posted at Pack -2.5 (-110), sharp bettors jumped on it. They knew it wasn't going to get any better than that. And they were right: Over the past two weeks, the spread has pretty much hovered around Pack -2.5 (-120) or Pack -3 (+100). That also looks like this: Steelers +3 (-120), which means you are paying a premium to get the extra half-point for the Steelers. In fact, I'd venture to say most sharps have spent the majority of the past two weeks ignoring the sides and breaking down props. As Teddy Covers told me in a podcast this week, "We can sit out the BCS title game or the hoops title game, but sharps see too many opportunities in the props to walk away. I'll have 100 tickets in my pocket by Sunday."
Teddy told me about a great scene from this past Super Bowl cycle that took place at the Hilton, as soon as the props were posted on Thursday, Jan. 27. All over the floor were the bank wrappers that had been ripped from stacks of $100s that come in packs of $10,000. That's how excited the professionals were to make some bets on something other than the game itself.
Now, between my props podcast with Teddy and with Hilton bookmaker Jay Kornegay, my
Right Angles props video, my
props contest column and when I appeared on Simmons' podcast, we've had plenty of talk about which props sharps like, which provide the best opportunities and which ones you should avoid. It's time to break down the game.
One question I've been getting a lot this week is: With two such public teams, will this be the biggest-bet Super Bowl ever? The record for highest volume in the state of Nevada is $94M, set when the Steelers played the
Seattle Seahawks, according to The Mirage's Jay Rood. Right now, he doesn't see that record being broken. "For one, the money line doesn't offer a great opportunity for someone to come in and bet $3 million to win $500,000. The odds on both teams are too low. That would happen at three or four books around town -- so you are taking big money out of the equation. Also, who knows if the planes can get people here. The weather has made that tough around the country and right now I am seeing less bodies than I normally do."
But how are the bodies he is seeing sizing up the game? For Rood's take, as well as many others, I spanned the world of wiseguys (and gals). I spoke to sharps who study stats, sharps who study trends, even the sharpest astrologist I know, Courtney Roberts, who truly uses her celestial power for good by examining the stars to predict outcomes -- against the spread!
So here we go:
Matchup: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Green Bay Packers
Line moves: Packers opened as 2.5-point (-110) favorites, currently 2.5 (-120) in most places. Some books are offering Steelers plus-3 (-115)
Total: Opened at 44, moved quickly to 46 overnight, now down to 44.5. Geoff Kulesa, founder of wunderdogsports.com: "I don't think this is a slam dunk for the Packers. But I do think they have the edge. What I did in this Super Bowl is look at four things: how Pittsburgh's offense performed against defenses similar to Green Bay's, how Pittsburgh's defense performed against offense's similar to Green Bay's and then vice versa. Both of these teams are mirror images, No. 1 and 2 in defense in points allowed and close to each other points produced: Green Bay is 10th and Pittsburgh is 12th. But in the second half of the season, Green Bay gave up fewer points than Pittsburgh. Against great defenses like Green Bay's, Pittsburgh produced 18.2 points per game. Green Bay's offense against great defenses got 20.3 points per game. Pittsburgh's D against similar offenses to Green Bay's allowed 15.3. Based on these numbers you would expect Green Bay to score in the range of 18 points. Now look at Green Bay's defense against similar offenses to Pittsburgh and they held those teams to 7.8 ppg. They totally shut down offenses similar to Pittsburgh. If you believe that, a sample of five or six games, Pittsburgh might struggle to score here. I don't see the Steelers getting more than 20 points. Actually 17. I can see a 21-17 game here. This analysis pointed me to say Green Bay has the advantage."
Dan Fabrizio, founder of Sportsinsights.com, the sports handicapping info site dedicated to examining contrarian views: "This is a really evenly bet game, it has been sitting around 51 percent or 52 percent at all the books, whether they are square or sharp. Usually there is some kind of opinion on a game like this because of the extra week and the media discussing it constantly. But there's just not a lot of one-way action. It's really evenly split within 5 percent at every book. Bookmakers will tell you they are trying to handicap the way the action is going to come in, not the game itself. So they were expecting a lot of Green Bay money and handicapped it that way, which is why we are so excited about the value in Pittsburgh. We're definitely coming out with Pittsburgh as our side because of the value. You can get some plus-3 out there at minus-120, I really think this line should be a pick. I don't mind paying the price for a number like three. I am thinking by the time kickoff comes it will be all threes across the board."
Jay Rood, bookmaker at The Mirage: "Right now we are Green Bay minus-2.5 (-120). I have actually been playing with the juice a little bit, moving it up and down, to see where the money comes in so I can spot some trends. Right now we are getting more Steelers bets by a 2-1 margin. And from this point forward I think we will see a little more Steeler money. Not a ton, but some. Early on we got a lot of sharp Packer money, when it was minus-2.5 (-110). Same with the under in the total. The public is coming out and betting the over when we are sitting at 44 or 44.5, but every time I move it to 45 the sharps come back and pound the under."
Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, which simulates the game 50,000 times: "We like the Packers to win in this scenario 22-19, 60.5 percent of the time they win straight up and they cover 56 percent of the time. We love that they get the number under three points because that will happen 6 percent of the time. I think it will come down to who makes the bigger plays on passing defense and Green Bay will win because of that. According to our evaluations right now, Pittsburgh's offensive line is its greatest weakness and would give up a sack on about 9 percent of passing plays, tied with the
Carolina Panthers for second-worst in the league. It's a huge opportunity to exploit a weakness. The Packers' defense gets a sack on about 9 percent of passing plays, second-best, which is tied with the Steelers. Although the advantage for Green Bay there is that the Packers' O-line gives up a sack on only about 6 percent of passing plays."
Fezzik, two-time winner of the Hilton handicapping contest: "Anyone who is making the line on this game can see that Green Bay is a 13-3 caliber team. It had a difficult schedule and the ball bounced badly for them a couple of times. They are a little bit better than Pittsburgh is. But the Packers have a suspect running game and the Steelers have experience, so I like the line as it stands. It is correct. If you could have gotten Green Bay at pick you'd like that and if you can eventually get Pittsburgh plus-3 at -110, you'd jump on that. But right now, the way it's priced, there is no great advantage."
Courtney Roberts, astrologist and founder of her own handicapping site: "It's Mike Tomlin who ends the game in the best planetary condition; his Pisces Sun and Moon setting in the west with Uranus, watery and mysterious in Pisces, followed right behind by a fiery, dramatic combination of the Moon conjunct Jupiter in early Aries. Mike McCarthy's really locked into the game chart/planetary pattern, just like Tomlin and Big Ben, but in a more difficult and restricted way. That's pretty typical of what you see in these big games: a tight nexus of planetary connections that brings such disparate souls together, locked in mortal combat, at this fateful moment in time. For McCarthy, the Aquarius Sun-Mars conjunction is separating from a conjunction with his natal Saturn (16 Aquarius), and square (90-degree angle) to his natal Sun-Mercury in Scorpio. It's also square Rodgers' Moon in Scorpio (Rodgers' Moon is very close to McCarthy's Sun-Mercury -- go figure.) Too much Saturn (limits, restrictions) and too many squares for my taste."
Butler -17
New Mexico St. -10
In the NBA I like Phoenix +2.
I like Kansas laying 13.