Super Bowl Props: Sharp money report
By Teddy Covers
Sharps are not loading up on either side for this game. They loved Green Bay at pick 'em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the pointspread has settled between the two numbers, we're seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side.
We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week; now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers vs. Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until a wild final five minutes.
Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are A.) at the Hilton and B.) were bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.
Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers’ first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.
There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 18.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the “Over completions” has moved.
Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wise guy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has eight and four catches, for 79 and 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.
James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if the Packers try to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.
Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from opposing tight ends – their secondary does a dynamite job containing first and second receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.
Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards: This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: Green Bay is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Green Bay favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.
Every year, wise guys lay heavy juice on props that the squares love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the “Will there be overtime?” The “No” has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the “Yes” every year looking for the long shot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the “No”.
Sharps bet the “No” on “Will Troy Polamalu record an interception” at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100%; he was basically a non-factor in the first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the “Yes”.
It's a similar story on the “Will there be a safety” prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the “Will either team score three straight times”, with the “Yes” (what wise guys bet) at -175 and the “No” at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet “Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 yards”, while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.
We've seen sharp money coming in on “Different Packers with a rushing attempt” Over 4. Green Bay's last eight games saw four with four rushers and four with five rushers. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual locks to get at least one carry, so this bet becomes something of a free roll: one end around or reverse and Over tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4.5 rushers; not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.
Some books opened Packers and Steelers O/U 6.5 different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7.5. Needless to say, the books that opened 6.5 are now Over -200 or higher.
Player to get first reception: Mike Wallace vs. Greg Jennings. Jennings got bet hard, now a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship, and he finished the game with eight receptions for the second consecutive week.
Let's not forget those punters! Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some $$ with his longest punt Over 54.5 yards bet up to 55 -130 right from the get-go. Masthay also took some “no touchback” money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.
Monday, January 31, 2011
3 NBA Plays Today.
I have 3 plays on Monday night. One strong play on Indiana -8.5. Two regular plays Heat -17.5 and The Mavericks -10.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
Saturday, January 29, 2011
3 Plays Today. All Mountain West.
Take SDSU -21 at home against WYO. They look to rebound after the BYU loss. On projection I have has them winning by 27.
CSU -1 at Utah. I don't love this game but CSU has been covering lately. I like this in a small play.
BYU-2 at UNew Mex...Set up game? It sure does smell fishy doesn't it? I know it's at "The Pit" but BYU rolls in this matchup.
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Super Bowl First Player To Score Prop Bets
| Aaron Rodgers (Packers) | ||||||
| Andrew Quarless (Packers) | ||||||
| Antonio Brown (Steelers) | ||||||
| Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers) | ||||||
| Brandon Jackson (Packers) | ||||||
| Donald Driver (Packers) | ||||||
| Emmanuel Sanders (Steelers) | ||||||
| Greg Jennings (Packers) | ||||||
| Heath Miller (Steelers) | ||||||
| Hines Ward (Steelers) | ||||||
| Isaac Redman (Steelers) | ||||||
| James Jones (Packers) | ||||||
| James Starks (Packers) | ||||||
| John Kuhn (Packers) | ||||||
| Jordy Nelson (Packers) | ||||||
| Mewelde Moore (Steelers) | ||||||
| Mike Wallace (Steelers) | ||||||
| Rashard Mendenhall (Steelers) | ||||||
| xz Field (Any Other Player) | ||||||
| zx No TD Scored in the Game | ||||||
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Chad Millman DissectsThe Early Line.
More than unemployment figures. More than exports and imports. More than inflation or housing prices and the cost of the new iPhone with Verizon service, the most dissected number in the country over the next two weeks will be the point spread for Super Bowl XLV between the Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers.
So, let's dissect, shall we?
All week long, heading into the AFC and NFC Championship Games, I had been getting e-mails from bookmakers and analysts predicting what the likely spread in any of the possible matchups would be. Consistently, in a Green Bay Packers-Pittsburgh Steelers showdown, the Packers were anywhere from a 1.5- to a 3-point favorite. And, sure enough, after the Packers dispatched the Chicago Bears in the NFC title game, most books were speculating that Green Bay would open as a 2.5-point favorite over the Steelers (and a four-point fave over the New York Jets but, well, that is moot now).
However, this is how mercurial and fickle point spreads and the public and bookmakers' interpretation of the public can be: After the Steelers ran up 24 points on the Jets in the first half -- confusing Mark Sanchez with blitzes and making the Gang Green defense look like it was suffering from gangrene -- one of the sharps' favorite offshore books, Pinnacle, posted the game as pick 'em.
This made a lot of wiseguys I know giddier than Steven Tyler judging 16-year-olds on "American Idol." They smelled opportunity. "I am shocked anyone would not see that Green Bay is power-rated higher than Pittsburgh," Fezzik e-mailed me late Sunday night.
After the Jets piled on 19 unanswered points and came within some Brian Schottenheimer playcalling brain farts of potentially scoring even more, bookmakers re-evaluated. And by the time the game opened it was back to Green Bay minus-2 (at the Hilton) or Green Bay minus-3 (several spots offshore).
I tweeted out the number last night and was immediately met with dismay, confusion and anger, as if I had made the spread myself. Some samples: "I'll take Pitt!"; "This isn't justifiable!"; "How can a six seed be favored over a two seed?!?!?!"
Well, the truth is, as far as that last point is concerned, it happens more frequently than you would think. According to Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, the Indianapolis Colts, as the No. 2 seed out of the AFC four years ago, were favored over the NFC's top-seeded Bears. And, in Big Ben's first Super Bowl, the Steelers were the No. 6 seed playing against No. 1 seed Seattle but came into the game favored.
The other truth is, despite all the protests and love for the Steelers, most of you want the Packers to be favored. That is how you've been betting during the playoffs. Against thePhiladelphia Eagles, despite being an underdog, Green Bay got all the money from the public. Same thing against the Atlanta Falcons, when the sharps piled on and took the Packers, too. Even in Chicago in the NFC title game as favorites, the Packers got all the love from the public. This happens a lot in the NFL: teams get hot and fans want to bet them, no matter what the point spread is. "The perception is that Green Bay has handled everyone and has done it on the road," said Pete Korner of the linemaking consulting group The Sports Club. "The bettors have played them hard in every game and that is one of our telltale flags for making them favorites."
Added Teddy Covers: "The market is just more impressed with three road wins by the Packers than two sloppy home wins by the Steelers. Also, at least early bettors are thinking that Green Bay's offense is helped by the fast track in Dallas. The Steelers thrive in sloppy conditions. The Packers looked unstoppable in Atlanta."
For fun, let's do something that actual wiseguys do when dissecting the spread: let's actually dissect the team. There's a reason Fezzik was buying like mad when the game was listed at pick 'em. During the regular season the Packers suffered six losses. However, each one was a peculiar aberration. The franchise-high in penalties against the Bears that cost them a win in Week 3; overtime losses to the Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins; a three-point loss at Atlanta in a game in which Aaron Rodgers fumbled at the Falcons' 1-yard line; losses to the Detroit Lions when Rodgers had been knocked out and to the New England Patriots when Matt Flynn was forced to start; plus the 15 guys on injured reserve. Since Rodgers came back from a concussion against the Giants in Week 16, a game the Pack won 45-17, they have steamrolled the Bears, the Eagles, the Falcons and the Bears again.
But, truly, it's the Packers' defense that handicappers point to as the reason they are power-rated so much higher. A couple of weeks ago I did a podcast with Paul Bessire of predictionmachine.com, who pointed out that it was Green Bay that had the second-best passing efficiency rating for defense in the league. In the playoffs, the QB rating allowed by Green Bay, a stat wiseguys love, is just 64, nearly 20 points better than the Steelers. And in one more game than Pittsburgh, the Packers have given up just eight more total points.
As Fezzik pointed out to me last night, this Green Bay team "is a juggernaut."
It's also the Super Bowl favorite.
Beating the line
I'm starting this to help you beat the line. If you're here, then I know you love to beat on sports. For me, it's NFL and College football. So if you're gambling for 100 bucks vs a friend or 2 dimes vs your book, why not win? That's where I come in. I will do most of the leg work for you. Please check in and leave any info to help us all beat the book. Here's my documented NFL Playoffs week by week.
January 23rd
Results:
Green Bay 21
Chicago 14
Win on the Packers
Loss on the Over.
New York Jets 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Win on Pitt
Win on the Over.
If you were like me and had the Pack/O, you were rooting hard for Chicago to tie the game. That gives your Over an automatic W and leaves the chance to have GB win by a TD. It was still a great weekend. See you before the Super Bowl.
Results:
Saturday-
Baltimore 24
Pittsburgh 31
What a game!
Green Bay 48
Atlanta 21
WOW
Sunday-
Seattle 24
Chicago 35
NY Jets 28
NE Pats 21
Green Bay and the Jets shocked me.
5-2 on the weekend! I'll take that anytime. I really lucked out at the end of the Jets game to hit that over.
January 23rd
Here are my plays.
Green Bay -4 Pittsburgh -4
Over 43 Over 38
Green Bay 21
Chicago 14
Win on the Packers
Loss on the Over.
New York Jets 19
Pittsburgh Steelers 24
Win on Pitt
Win on the Over.
If you were like me and had the Pack/O, you were rooting hard for Chicago to tie the game. That gives your Over an automatic W and leaves the chance to have GB win by a TD. It was still a great weekend. See you before the Super Bowl.
January 15th & 16th
*Note* Home teams in the playoffs are 60-20 off of byes.
MY PICKS
Saturday-
Steelers -3 (not a strong play,should be a close game)
Over 37.5
Atlanta-1 (I'm taking the home team, I actually love this play)
Over 44 (gotta love these teams on the turf)
Sunday-
Bears-9.5 (I really love this, one mod I have has them winning by 15) LOAD UP
Pats -9 (Pats are solid and I'll take Brady over Sanchez)
Over 45 Both of these teams can air it out.
Results:
Saturday-
Baltimore 24
Pittsburgh 31
What a game!
Green Bay 48
Atlanta 21
WOW
Sunday-
Seattle 24
Chicago 35
NY Jets 28
NE Pats 21
Green Bay and the Jets shocked me.
5-2 on the weekend! I'll take that anytime. I really lucked out at the end of the Jets game to hit that over.
Wild Card Weekend
My Picks
Load up on Seahawks +10
I also moneylined them +400
Colts -2.0
Load up on the Ravens -3
I like Green Bay small +2.5
Over 46.5 could be a shootout
Results:
Hit Seattle Moneyline and the Hawks catching 10!
Great weekend.
4-2 The Ravens looked tough.
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