Colorado St. +7.5
Mississippi St. -2
Temple +3
Georgia Tech -15
Saturday, September 17, 2011
Friday, September 9, 2011
Saturday NCAA games
East Carolina +17.5
Arkansas -35
Oregon -26.5
Purdue v. Rice OVER 51.0
No. Illinois -5.5
Stanford -20
Arkansas -35
Oregon -26.5
Purdue v. Rice OVER 51.0
No. Illinois -5.5
Stanford -20
Saturday, September 3, 2011
NCAA SATURDAY
MIDD TENN ST +16
BOISE ST. -3
COLORADO ST. -6.5
UCLA +2
SO. FLORIDA +10.5
TEXAS V. RICE OVER 55
BOISE ST. -3
COLORADO ST. -6.5
UCLA +2
SO. FLORIDA +10.5
TEXAS V. RICE OVER 55
Thursday, September 1, 2011
Blueprint to successfully betting college football courtesy for covers.com by David Payne
Dearly beloved and degenerates,
We are gathered here today, on the opening week of college football, to mourn the loss of one of the game’s most generous men, the honorable Jim Tressel.
For the past decade, few coaches put more money in gamblers’ pockets than Tressel, bless his little red sweater vest.
Jim was a man of integrity and impeccable scruples … when it came to covering the spread and his players’ tattooed backs. His Buckeyes exceeded the betting market’s expectations 61.8 percent of the time with a classy 76-47 record against the spread during his 10-year tenure. He was money in Big Ten play (48-30-2 ATS) and when coming off a loss (13-5 ATS). Jim was certainly a giving man.
We’ll miss him, but, like all great leaders, he would want us to move forward.
So let’s go get some free tattoos and gamble.
Welcome to Cram Session 2011.
DP’s Blueprint to Successfully Betting College Football
BET ON
• The over in Rice games: Owls’ games have eclipsed the total in a ridiculous 69.3 percent (70-31) of the time since 1999.
• The eventual national champion: The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number.
• South Carolina at 20/1 and Virginia Tech at 45/1 to win the BCS title: Then hedge when they get in the mix late.
• Virginia Tech in November: The Hokies under Frank Beamer are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in November since 2004.
• Oregon at home: The Ducks are 25-9-1 ATS in Autzen Stadium since 2005.
• TCU in MWC play: The Horned Frogs are 31-13-2 ATS in conference play under coach Gary Patterson.
• The over in conference play: In the past five seasons, the under has cashed 52.73 percent in conference games.
BET AGAINST
• Oregon State in September: The Beavers are 8-19 ATS in the first month of the season under Mike Riley since 2003.
• Home underdogs: Home-field advantage is over-valued in college football. Last season, home dogs covered only 44.06 percent (115-146-6) of games.
• LSU in SEC play: Les Miles is 15-31-4 ATS in conference play at LSU.
• UTEP in November: Mike Price-coached teams are 22-48-1 ATS in the month’s final season.
TEAMS WITH THE BEST PLAYERS
The folks at NFLDraftScout.com and The Sports Xchange ranked the top 750 NFL prospects of 2012. Here’s a look at the teams with the most NFL talent).
Miami – 15: How many of them are eligible come kick off is up in the air.
Wisconsin – 15: If Russell Wilson was the missing piece, the Big Ten is over. No other Big Ten team has more than Penn State’s 11 draft prospects.
Alabama – 13: The Crimson Tide’s opening opponent, Kent State, has two NFL prospects.
Virginia Tech – 13: Lot of hype about the Hokies being a real sleeper this year.
Clemson – 12: Surprisingly talented, the Tigers will be waiting for Florida State the week after the ’Noles host Oklahoma.
Georgia – 12: Plenty of dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball, if they can stay healthy.
Missouri – 12: All that’s lacking from the team with the most NFL prospects in the Big 12 is an experienced QB.
Notable: Duke has seven NFL prospects. Auburn has four.
12 MONEYMAKERS
When betting against 10 percent juice, anything less than a 52.4 winning percentage will cost you money. Sharps and pro bettors shoot for between a 55-57 percent success rate. But 55 percent for a recreational gambler is a legitimate goal.
Since 1999, 12 teams have covered the spread in 55 percent of their games:
1. Boise State: 62.67% (89-50-3)
2. Oregon State 60.70% (82-54-1)
3. Connecticut: 60.0% (72-46-2)
4. Oregon: 58.45% (83-59)
5. Ohio State: 58.21% (85-60-1)
6. Iowa: 57.63% (83-59-2)
7. Utah: 57.24% (79-57-2)
8. Virginia Tech: 56.95% (86-65)
9. TCU: 56.33% (80-61-1)
10. Navy: 55.88% (76-61-2)
11. Hawaii: 55.24% (79-63-1)
12. Boston College: 55.17% (80-65)
10-WIN ATS TEAMS
Since 1997, 18 teams have finished a season with 10 or more ATS victories. Twelve of the 18 began the season unranked. Five began the season ranked in the Top 10, and only one began the season ranked No. 11 to 25.
Eleven of the 18 teams of the 10-ATS-win teams came from BCS conferences.
BAD NEWS
“Overall, college football has been pretty good, but that's not necessarily because we had good numbers. We've had a real trend of top teams going down week after week that just jolted the Favorite/Over pack of bettors. Maybe there's been a little parity, I'm not sure about that though. All I know is college football has been very unpredictable and that's always good for the bookmaker.” – Pete Korner, founder and head oddsmaker at The Sports Club in Las Vegas.
TEAMS THAT WILL BE FASTER
Clemson: New offensive coordinator Chad Morris has installed an Oregon-like tempo that helped produce 130 plays in the spring game, up 22 from last year’s spring scrimmage.
Pitt: Todd Graham brings over his high-octane scheme from Tulsa. Panthers’ quarterback Tino Sunseri threw for more than 400 yards in wet, windy conditions during the spring game.
West Virginia: Under the direction of Dana Holgorsen, the Mountaineers racked up more than 800 yards and 87 points in the spring game.
Arizona State: "We're at the point right now where I'm yelling at him to get the play in faster. The average speed I think of the quarterbacks (in Saturday's scrimmage) was right about 10 seconds after the ball was set and the whistle was blown." –ASU QB Brock Osweiler, who estimated that ASU was around 15 seconds last season in the Arizona Republic.
THE NUT QUESTION
If you can’t answer the following question, you’re going down this year – Why are you going to win more money betting college football this year than last?
“I worked harder than ever during the summer. Since there was an NFL lockout, I spent extra time in May, June and July updating and improving my power ratings, re-assessing coaching and player changes, while also reloading my database of Coaching Spread Patterns. Those three areas of work have me way ahead of the competition going into 2011.” – Covers Expert Steve Merril.
“In my view, confidence comes with preparation, experience and success, as it does with most activities or sports. My confidence that each season will produce good results is based on several years of long-term results and profits in 10 of 12 years and near breakeven in the two 'off' years.” – respected Covers.com forum handicapper nostradamus12.
“I'm not going to pass on games just because they look 'too easy'. Many of those 'easy' games tend to be just that, particularly early in the college football season.” -- Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
TRENDLESS HANDICAPPING
“Trust your eyes,” advises respected Covers.com forum capper Boom_Boom, who has won at least 25 units for eight straight seasons betting college football. “Most bettors try to find that ‘scheme or special trend" to help them wager from week to week. I do a ton of homework on college football as you can tell by reading my college football breakdown. But most importantly, I trust my eyes.”
Boom won 28 units on posted plays last season. I lost .01 units, going 23-21-2 in my Payneful Picks.
PAYNEFUL PICKS
Oklahoma -24 / Oregon -3 / Ohio State -33.5 / Troy-Clemson: Over 55.
We are gathered here today, on the opening week of college football, to mourn the loss of one of the game’s most generous men, the honorable Jim Tressel.
For the past decade, few coaches put more money in gamblers’ pockets than Tressel, bless his little red sweater vest.
Jim was a man of integrity and impeccable scruples … when it came to covering the spread and his players’ tattooed backs. His Buckeyes exceeded the betting market’s expectations 61.8 percent of the time with a classy 76-47 record against the spread during his 10-year tenure. He was money in Big Ten play (48-30-2 ATS) and when coming off a loss (13-5 ATS). Jim was certainly a giving man.
We’ll miss him, but, like all great leaders, he would want us to move forward.
So let’s go get some free tattoos and gamble.
Welcome to Cram Session 2011.
DP’s Blueprint to Successfully Betting College Football
BET ON
• The over in Rice games: Owls’ games have eclipsed the total in a ridiculous 69.3 percent (70-31) of the time since 1999.
• The eventual national champion: The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number.
• South Carolina at 20/1 and Virginia Tech at 45/1 to win the BCS title: Then hedge when they get in the mix late.
• Virginia Tech in November: The Hokies under Frank Beamer are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in November since 2004.
• Oregon at home: The Ducks are 25-9-1 ATS in Autzen Stadium since 2005.
• TCU in MWC play: The Horned Frogs are 31-13-2 ATS in conference play under coach Gary Patterson.
• The over in conference play: In the past five seasons, the under has cashed 52.73 percent in conference games.
BET AGAINST
• Oregon State in September: The Beavers are 8-19 ATS in the first month of the season under Mike Riley since 2003.
• Home underdogs: Home-field advantage is over-valued in college football. Last season, home dogs covered only 44.06 percent (115-146-6) of games.
• LSU in SEC play: Les Miles is 15-31-4 ATS in conference play at LSU.
• UTEP in November: Mike Price-coached teams are 22-48-1 ATS in the month’s final season.
TEAMS WITH THE BEST PLAYERS
The folks at NFLDraftScout.com and The Sports Xchange ranked the top 750 NFL prospects of 2012. Here’s a look at the teams with the most NFL talent).
Miami – 15: How many of them are eligible come kick off is up in the air.
Wisconsin – 15: If Russell Wilson was the missing piece, the Big Ten is over. No other Big Ten team has more than Penn State’s 11 draft prospects.
Alabama – 13: The Crimson Tide’s opening opponent, Kent State, has two NFL prospects.
Virginia Tech – 13: Lot of hype about the Hokies being a real sleeper this year.
Clemson – 12: Surprisingly talented, the Tigers will be waiting for Florida State the week after the ’Noles host Oklahoma.
Georgia – 12: Plenty of dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball, if they can stay healthy.
Missouri – 12: All that’s lacking from the team with the most NFL prospects in the Big 12 is an experienced QB.
Notable: Duke has seven NFL prospects. Auburn has four.
12 MONEYMAKERS
When betting against 10 percent juice, anything less than a 52.4 winning percentage will cost you money. Sharps and pro bettors shoot for between a 55-57 percent success rate. But 55 percent for a recreational gambler is a legitimate goal.
Since 1999, 12 teams have covered the spread in 55 percent of their games:
1. Boise State: 62.67% (89-50-3)
2. Oregon State 60.70% (82-54-1)
3. Connecticut: 60.0% (72-46-2)
4. Oregon: 58.45% (83-59)
5. Ohio State: 58.21% (85-60-1)
6. Iowa: 57.63% (83-59-2)
7. Utah: 57.24% (79-57-2)
8. Virginia Tech: 56.95% (86-65)
9. TCU: 56.33% (80-61-1)
10. Navy: 55.88% (76-61-2)
11. Hawaii: 55.24% (79-63-1)
12. Boston College: 55.17% (80-65)
10-WIN ATS TEAMS
Since 1997, 18 teams have finished a season with 10 or more ATS victories. Twelve of the 18 began the season unranked. Five began the season ranked in the Top 10, and only one began the season ranked No. 11 to 25.
Eleven of the 18 teams of the 10-ATS-win teams came from BCS conferences.
BAD NEWS
“Overall, college football has been pretty good, but that's not necessarily because we had good numbers. We've had a real trend of top teams going down week after week that just jolted the Favorite/Over pack of bettors. Maybe there's been a little parity, I'm not sure about that though. All I know is college football has been very unpredictable and that's always good for the bookmaker.” – Pete Korner, founder and head oddsmaker at The Sports Club in Las Vegas.
TEAMS THAT WILL BE FASTER
Clemson: New offensive coordinator Chad Morris has installed an Oregon-like tempo that helped produce 130 plays in the spring game, up 22 from last year’s spring scrimmage.
Pitt: Todd Graham brings over his high-octane scheme from Tulsa. Panthers’ quarterback Tino Sunseri threw for more than 400 yards in wet, windy conditions during the spring game.
West Virginia: Under the direction of Dana Holgorsen, the Mountaineers racked up more than 800 yards and 87 points in the spring game.
Arizona State: "We're at the point right now where I'm yelling at him to get the play in faster. The average speed I think of the quarterbacks (in Saturday's scrimmage) was right about 10 seconds after the ball was set and the whistle was blown." –ASU QB Brock Osweiler, who estimated that ASU was around 15 seconds last season in the Arizona Republic.
THE NUT QUESTION
If you can’t answer the following question, you’re going down this year – Why are you going to win more money betting college football this year than last?
“I worked harder than ever during the summer. Since there was an NFL lockout, I spent extra time in May, June and July updating and improving my power ratings, re-assessing coaching and player changes, while also reloading my database of Coaching Spread Patterns. Those three areas of work have me way ahead of the competition going into 2011.” – Covers Expert Steve Merril.
“In my view, confidence comes with preparation, experience and success, as it does with most activities or sports. My confidence that each season will produce good results is based on several years of long-term results and profits in 10 of 12 years and near breakeven in the two 'off' years.” – respected Covers.com forum handicapper nostradamus12.
“I'm not going to pass on games just because they look 'too easy'. Many of those 'easy' games tend to be just that, particularly early in the college football season.” -- Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
TRENDLESS HANDICAPPING
“Trust your eyes,” advises respected Covers.com forum capper Boom_Boom, who has won at least 25 units for eight straight seasons betting college football. “Most bettors try to find that ‘scheme or special trend" to help them wager from week to week. I do a ton of homework on college football as you can tell by reading my college football breakdown. But most importantly, I trust my eyes.”
Boom won 28 units on posted plays last season. I lost .01 units, going 23-21-2 in my Payneful Picks.
PAYNEFUL PICKS
Oklahoma -24 / Oregon -3 / Ohio State -33.5 / Troy-Clemson: Over 55.
Blueprint to successfully betting college football courtesy for covers.com by David Payne
Dearly beloved and degenerates,
We are gathered here today, on the opening week of college football, to mourn the loss of one of the game’s most generous men, the honorable Jim Tressel.
For the past decade, few coaches put more money in gamblers’ pockets than Tressel, bless his little red sweater vest.
Jim was a man of integrity and impeccable scruples … when it came to covering the spread and his players’ tattooed backs. His Buckeyes exceeded the betting market’s expectations 61.8 percent of the time with a classy 76-47 record against the spread during his 10-year tenure. He was money in Big Ten play (48-30-2 ATS) and when coming off a loss (13-5 ATS). Jim was certainly a giving man.
We’ll miss him, but, like all great leaders, he would want us to move forward.
So let’s go get some free tattoos and gamble.
Welcome to Cram Session 2011.
DP’s Blueprint to Successfully Betting College Football
BET ON
• The over in Rice games: Owls’ games have eclipsed the total in a ridiculous 69.3 percent (70-31) of the time since 1999.
• The eventual national champion: The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number.
• South Carolina at 20/1 and Virginia Tech at 45/1 to win the BCS title: Then hedge when they get in the mix late.
• Virginia Tech in November: The Hokies under Frank Beamer are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in November since 2004.
• Oregon at home: The Ducks are 25-9-1 ATS in Autzen Stadium since 2005.
• TCU in MWC play: The Horned Frogs are 31-13-2 ATS in conference play under coach Gary Patterson.
• The over in conference play: In the past five seasons, the under has cashed 52.73 percent in conference games.
BET AGAINST
• Oregon State in September: The Beavers are 8-19 ATS in the first month of the season under Mike Riley since 2003.
• Home underdogs: Home-field advantage is over-valued in college football. Last season, home dogs covered only 44.06 percent (115-146-6) of games.
• LSU in SEC play: Les Miles is 15-31-4 ATS in conference play at LSU.
• UTEP in November: Mike Price-coached teams are 22-48-1 ATS in the month’s final season.
TEAMS WITH THE BEST PLAYERS
The folks at NFLDraftScout.com and The Sports Xchange ranked the top 750 NFL prospects of 2012. Here’s a look at the teams with the most NFL talent).
Miami – 15: How many of them are eligible come kick off is up in the air.
Wisconsin – 15: If Russell Wilson was the missing piece, the Big Ten is over. No other Big Ten team has more than Penn State’s 11 draft prospects.
Alabama – 13: The Crimson Tide’s opening opponent, Kent State, has two NFL prospects.
Virginia Tech – 13: Lot of hype about the Hokies being a real sleeper this year.
Clemson – 12: Surprisingly talented, the Tigers will be waiting for Florida State the week after the ’Noles host Oklahoma.
Georgia – 12: Plenty of dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball, if they can stay healthy.
Missouri – 12: All that’s lacking from the team with the most NFL prospects in the Big 12 is an experienced QB.
Notable: Duke has seven NFL prospects. Auburn has four.
12 MONEYMAKERS
When betting against 10 percent juice, anything less than a 52.4 winning percentage will cost you money. Sharps and pro bettors shoot for between a 55-57 percent success rate. But 55 percent for a recreational gambler is a legitimate goal.
Since 1999, 12 teams have covered the spread in 55 percent of their games:
1. Boise State: 62.67% (89-50-3)
2. Oregon State 60.70% (82-54-1)
3. Connecticut: 60.0% (72-46-2)
4. Oregon: 58.45% (83-59)
5. Ohio State: 58.21% (85-60-1)
6. Iowa: 57.63% (83-59-2)
7. Utah: 57.24% (79-57-2)
8. Virginia Tech: 56.95% (86-65)
9. TCU: 56.33% (80-61-1)
10. Navy: 55.88% (76-61-2)
11. Hawaii: 55.24% (79-63-1)
12. Boston College: 55.17% (80-65)
10-WIN ATS TEAMS
Since 1997, 18 teams have finished a season with 10 or more ATS victories. Twelve of the 18 began the season unranked. Five began the season ranked in the Top 10, and only one began the season ranked No. 11 to 25.
Eleven of the 18 teams of the 10-ATS-win teams came from BCS conferences.
BAD NEWS
“Overall, college football has been pretty good, but that's not necessarily because we had good numbers. We've had a real trend of top teams going down week after week that just jolted the Favorite/Over pack of bettors. Maybe there's been a little parity, I'm not sure about that though. All I know is college football has been very unpredictable and that's always good for the bookmaker.” – Pete Korner, founder and head oddsmaker at The Sports Club in Las Vegas.
TEAMS THAT WILL BE FASTER
Clemson: New offensive coordinator Chad Morris has installed an Oregon-like tempo that helped produce 130 plays in the spring game, up 22 from last year’s spring scrimmage.
Pitt: Todd Graham brings over his high-octane scheme from Tulsa. Panthers’ quarterback Tino Sunseri threw for more than 400 yards in wet, windy conditions during the spring game.
West Virginia: Under the direction of Dana Holgorsen, the Mountaineers racked up more than 800 yards and 87 points in the spring game.
Arizona State: "We're at the point right now where I'm yelling at him to get the play in faster. The average speed I think of the quarterbacks (in Saturday's scrimmage) was right about 10 seconds after the ball was set and the whistle was blown." –ASU QB Brock Osweiler, who estimated that ASU was around 15 seconds last season in the Arizona Republic.
THE NUT QUESTION
If you can’t answer the following question, you’re going down this year – Why are you going to win more money betting college football this year than last?
“I worked harder than ever during the summer. Since there was an NFL lockout, I spent extra time in May, June and July updating and improving my power ratings, re-assessing coaching and player changes, while also reloading my database of Coaching Spread Patterns. Those three areas of work have me way ahead of the competition going into 2011.” – Covers Expert Steve Merril.
“In my view, confidence comes with preparation, experience and success, as it does with most activities or sports. My confidence that each season will produce good results is based on several years of long-term results and profits in 10 of 12 years and near breakeven in the two 'off' years.” – respected Covers.com forum handicapper nostradamus12.
“I'm not going to pass on games just because they look 'too easy'. Many of those 'easy' games tend to be just that, particularly early in the college football season.” -- Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
TRENDLESS HANDICAPPING
“Trust your eyes,” advises respected Covers.com forum capper Boom_Boom, who has won at least 25 units for eight straight seasons betting college football. “Most bettors try to find that ‘scheme or special trend" to help them wager from week to week. I do a ton of homework on college football as you can tell by reading my college football breakdown. But most importantly, I trust my eyes.”
Boom won 28 units on posted plays last season. I lost .01 units, going 23-21-2 in my Payneful Picks.
PAYNEFUL PICKS
Oklahoma -24 / Oregon -3 / Ohio State -33.5 / Troy-Clemson: Over 55.
We are gathered here today, on the opening week of college football, to mourn the loss of one of the game’s most generous men, the honorable Jim Tressel.
For the past decade, few coaches put more money in gamblers’ pockets than Tressel, bless his little red sweater vest.
Jim was a man of integrity and impeccable scruples … when it came to covering the spread and his players’ tattooed backs. His Buckeyes exceeded the betting market’s expectations 61.8 percent of the time with a classy 76-47 record against the spread during his 10-year tenure. He was money in Big Ten play (48-30-2 ATS) and when coming off a loss (13-5 ATS). Jim was certainly a giving man.
We’ll miss him, but, like all great leaders, he would want us to move forward.
So let’s go get some free tattoos and gamble.
Welcome to Cram Session 2011.
DP’s Blueprint to Successfully Betting College Football
BET ON
• The over in Rice games: Owls’ games have eclipsed the total in a ridiculous 69.3 percent (70-31) of the time since 1999.
• The eventual national champion: The last 11 BCS champs went a combined 92-42-2 ATS, with only the 2007 LSU Tigers finishing below .500 against the number.
• South Carolina at 20/1 and Virginia Tech at 45/1 to win the BCS title: Then hedge when they get in the mix late.
• Virginia Tech in November: The Hokies under Frank Beamer are a ridiculous 22-4 ATS in November since 2004.
• Oregon at home: The Ducks are 25-9-1 ATS in Autzen Stadium since 2005.
• TCU in MWC play: The Horned Frogs are 31-13-2 ATS in conference play under coach Gary Patterson.
• The over in conference play: In the past five seasons, the under has cashed 52.73 percent in conference games.
BET AGAINST
• Oregon State in September: The Beavers are 8-19 ATS in the first month of the season under Mike Riley since 2003.
• Home underdogs: Home-field advantage is over-valued in college football. Last season, home dogs covered only 44.06 percent (115-146-6) of games.
• LSU in SEC play: Les Miles is 15-31-4 ATS in conference play at LSU.
• UTEP in November: Mike Price-coached teams are 22-48-1 ATS in the month’s final season.
TEAMS WITH THE BEST PLAYERS
The folks at NFLDraftScout.com and The Sports Xchange ranked the top 750 NFL prospects of 2012. Here’s a look at the teams with the most NFL talent).
Miami – 15: How many of them are eligible come kick off is up in the air.
Wisconsin – 15: If Russell Wilson was the missing piece, the Big Ten is over. No other Big Ten team has more than Penn State’s 11 draft prospects.
Alabama – 13: The Crimson Tide’s opening opponent, Kent State, has two NFL prospects.
Virginia Tech – 13: Lot of hype about the Hokies being a real sleeper this year.
Clemson – 12: Surprisingly talented, the Tigers will be waiting for Florida State the week after the ’Noles host Oklahoma.
Georgia – 12: Plenty of dynamic playmakers on both sides of the ball, if they can stay healthy.
Missouri – 12: All that’s lacking from the team with the most NFL prospects in the Big 12 is an experienced QB.
Notable: Duke has seven NFL prospects. Auburn has four.
12 MONEYMAKERS
When betting against 10 percent juice, anything less than a 52.4 winning percentage will cost you money. Sharps and pro bettors shoot for between a 55-57 percent success rate. But 55 percent for a recreational gambler is a legitimate goal.
Since 1999, 12 teams have covered the spread in 55 percent of their games:
1. Boise State: 62.67% (89-50-3)
2. Oregon State 60.70% (82-54-1)
3. Connecticut: 60.0% (72-46-2)
4. Oregon: 58.45% (83-59)
5. Ohio State: 58.21% (85-60-1)
6. Iowa: 57.63% (83-59-2)
7. Utah: 57.24% (79-57-2)
8. Virginia Tech: 56.95% (86-65)
9. TCU: 56.33% (80-61-1)
10. Navy: 55.88% (76-61-2)
11. Hawaii: 55.24% (79-63-1)
12. Boston College: 55.17% (80-65)
10-WIN ATS TEAMS
Since 1997, 18 teams have finished a season with 10 or more ATS victories. Twelve of the 18 began the season unranked. Five began the season ranked in the Top 10, and only one began the season ranked No. 11 to 25.
Eleven of the 18 teams of the 10-ATS-win teams came from BCS conferences.
BAD NEWS
“Overall, college football has been pretty good, but that's not necessarily because we had good numbers. We've had a real trend of top teams going down week after week that just jolted the Favorite/Over pack of bettors. Maybe there's been a little parity, I'm not sure about that though. All I know is college football has been very unpredictable and that's always good for the bookmaker.” – Pete Korner, founder and head oddsmaker at The Sports Club in Las Vegas.
TEAMS THAT WILL BE FASTER
Clemson: New offensive coordinator Chad Morris has installed an Oregon-like tempo that helped produce 130 plays in the spring game, up 22 from last year’s spring scrimmage.
Pitt: Todd Graham brings over his high-octane scheme from Tulsa. Panthers’ quarterback Tino Sunseri threw for more than 400 yards in wet, windy conditions during the spring game.
West Virginia: Under the direction of Dana Holgorsen, the Mountaineers racked up more than 800 yards and 87 points in the spring game.
Arizona State: "We're at the point right now where I'm yelling at him to get the play in faster. The average speed I think of the quarterbacks (in Saturday's scrimmage) was right about 10 seconds after the ball was set and the whistle was blown." –ASU QB Brock Osweiler, who estimated that ASU was around 15 seconds last season in the Arizona Republic.
THE NUT QUESTION
If you can’t answer the following question, you’re going down this year – Why are you going to win more money betting college football this year than last?
“I worked harder than ever during the summer. Since there was an NFL lockout, I spent extra time in May, June and July updating and improving my power ratings, re-assessing coaching and player changes, while also reloading my database of Coaching Spread Patterns. Those three areas of work have me way ahead of the competition going into 2011.” – Covers Expert Steve Merril.
“In my view, confidence comes with preparation, experience and success, as it does with most activities or sports. My confidence that each season will produce good results is based on several years of long-term results and profits in 10 of 12 years and near breakeven in the two 'off' years.” – respected Covers.com forum handicapper nostradamus12.
“I'm not going to pass on games just because they look 'too easy'. Many of those 'easy' games tend to be just that, particularly early in the college football season.” -- Covers Expert Sean Murphy.
TRENDLESS HANDICAPPING
“Trust your eyes,” advises respected Covers.com forum capper Boom_Boom, who has won at least 25 units for eight straight seasons betting college football. “Most bettors try to find that ‘scheme or special trend" to help them wager from week to week. I do a ton of homework on college football as you can tell by reading my college football breakdown. But most importantly, I trust my eyes.”
Boom won 28 units on posted plays last season. I lost .01 units, going 23-21-2 in my Payneful Picks.
PAYNEFUL PICKS
Oklahoma -24 / Oregon -3 / Ohio State -33.5 / Troy-Clemson: Over 55.
Friday, March 25, 2011
I hated all the games yesterday and that saved us all some money... Here are my plays for tonight
2 games I really like..
Richmond +11
Kentucky +5.5
Here's who I would take in the other games if I had to.
FSU -3.5
Marquette +4.5
Richmond +11
Kentucky +5.5
Here's who I would take in the other games if I had to.
FSU -3.5
Marquette +4.5
Sunday, March 20, 2011
Friday, March 18, 2011
Updates Throughout The Day
Arizona -5
George Mason +1.5
UNLV -2
Va. Commonwealth +6
Last one NIT
Colorado -6
George Mason +1.5
UNLV -2
Va. Commonwealth +6
Last one NIT
Colorado -6
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Wednesday, March 16, 2011
Saturday, March 12, 2011
Friday, March 11, 2011
Thursday, March 10, 2011
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
Tuesday, March 8, 2011
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Will Have Picks Throughout The Day
Wyoming +20
Utah St. -12.5
Kansas -2.5
Western Michigan -2
No. Arizona -11.5
Utah St. -12.5
Kansas -2.5
Western Michigan -2
No. Arizona -11.5
Friday, March 4, 2011
Thursday, March 3, 2011
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
Monday, February 28, 2011
Not much out there today.
The only game I would recommend is a small play
No. Colorado-7
They need to win this game to have a chance of hosting their conf. tourney.
No. Colorado-7
They need to win this game to have a chance of hosting their conf. tourney.
Saturday, February 26, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
Thursday, February 24, 2011
Wednesday, February 23, 2011
Tuesday, February 22, 2011
Monday, February 21, 2011
Saturday, February 19, 2011
Friday, February 18, 2011
Thursday, February 17, 2011
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
Monday, February 14, 2011
Sunday, February 13, 2011
Saturday, February 12, 2011
2 More Games... I will probably have a couple more late plays... check back
NEW MEXICO ST -1
GEORGE MASON -9.5
GEORGE MASON -9.5
Friday, February 11, 2011
Thursday, February 10, 2011
Wednesday, February 9, 2011
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Monday, February 7, 2011
2 Plays Tonight
These lines are tough today. I only have two small plays tonight.
Butler -17
New Mexico St. -10
Butler -17New Mexico St. -10
Sunday, February 6, 2011
Saturday, February 5, 2011
7 Plays NCAA
George Mason -4.5
UTEP -3
Kent St. -11.5
Memphis +9
Colorado ST. -4.5
Idaho -4.5
Delaware +3.5
UTEP -3
Kent St. -11.5
Memphis +9
Colorado ST. -4.5
Idaho -4.5
Delaware +3.5
Friday, February 4, 2011
Analyzing the Super Bowl XLV Line.
by Chad Millman
Analyzing the Super Bowl XLV line
Analyzing the Super Bowl XLV line 
February, 4, 2011
FEB 4
12:08
PM ET
US PresswireThe Super Bowl is coming up. Which one of these guys do Vegas wiseguys like?3 Plays Tonight
We had a goodnight last going 2-1. I also went 4-2 with peoples email questions.
Tonight-
In the NBA I like Phoenix +2.
In a smaller play I like Memphis -13.5.
NCAA-
1 Play Penn -11.
Tonight-
In the NBA I like Phoenix +2.In a smaller play I like Memphis -13.5.
NCAA-
1 Play Penn -11.
Thursday, February 3, 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
1 NBA & 4 NCAA Plays
NBA-I like Minnesota +2.5 in this, but only as a smaller play.
NCAA-
UTEP-6.5
Mizzou-6
BYU-15
Drake+8
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
3 Plays Today. 1 NBA 2 NCAA
First Play is The Hornets -9
NCAA-
I like Kansas laying 13.
I really like FSU laying 18.5
Let's keep this hot streak going.
75% Last Week! NBA 3-2 NCAA 6-1
We hit 75 percent of our plays last week. That's an amazing week, let's keep your bookie on his toes. Check back for an NBA play tonight.
Monday, January 31, 2011
A post by Teddy Covers
Super Bowl Props: Sharp money report
By Teddy Covers
Sharps are not loading up on either side for this game. They loved Green Bay at pick 'em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the pointspread has settled between the two numbers, we're seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side.
We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week; now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers vs. Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until a wild final five minutes.
Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are A.) at the Hilton and B.) were bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.
Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers’ first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.
There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 18.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the “Over completions” has moved.
Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wise guy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has eight and four catches, for 79 and 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.
James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if the Packers try to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.
Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from opposing tight ends – their secondary does a dynamite job containing first and second receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.
Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards: This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: Green Bay is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Green Bay favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.
Every year, wise guys lay heavy juice on props that the squares love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the “Will there be overtime?” The “No” has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the “Yes” every year looking for the long shot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the “No”.
Sharps bet the “No” on “Will Troy Polamalu record an interception” at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100%; he was basically a non-factor in the first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the “Yes”.
It's a similar story on the “Will there be a safety” prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the “Will either team score three straight times”, with the “Yes” (what wise guys bet) at -175 and the “No” at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet “Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 yards”, while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.
We've seen sharp money coming in on “Different Packers with a rushing attempt” Over 4. Green Bay's last eight games saw four with four rushers and four with five rushers. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual locks to get at least one carry, so this bet becomes something of a free roll: one end around or reverse and Over tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4.5 rushers; not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.
Some books opened Packers and Steelers O/U 6.5 different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7.5. Needless to say, the books that opened 6.5 are now Over -200 or higher.
Player to get first reception: Mike Wallace vs. Greg Jennings. Jennings got bet hard, now a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship, and he finished the game with eight receptions for the second consecutive week.
Let's not forget those punters! Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some $$ with his longest punt Over 54.5 yards bet up to 55 -130 right from the get-go. Masthay also took some “no touchback” money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.
By Teddy Covers
Sharps are not loading up on either side for this game. They loved Green Bay at pick 'em, they loved Pittsburgh at +3. Now that the pointspread has settled between the two numbers, we're seeing lukewarm support for both sides, perhaps a notch or two more on the Packers side.
We definitely saw a bevy of sharps pounding the Under when it hit 46 last week; now down to 44 or 44.5. Sharps love the Dom Capers vs. Dick LeBeau defensive coordinator matchup with extra time to prepare. And we've seen Unders cash in five of the last six Super Bowls. The Steelers vs. Cardinals Super Bowl was the only recent exception, and that game was a dead nuts Under until a wild final five minutes.
Enough with the side and total! The real story about the Super Bowl comes from the plethora of proposition wagers available to wager on. For the sake of brevity, I'm going to concentrate on prop bets that are A.) at the Hilton and B.) were bet hard when the Hilton opened their numbers last week. Jay Kornegay and his staff are the industry leaders when it comes to Super Bowl props. I’ll happily give them the attention they deserve here.
Aaron Rodgers got bet up for his rushing numbers. Rodgers’ first rush of the game Over 4.5 yards took money, as did the Over 18.5 rushing yards for the game. Bettors expect him to scramble out of the pocket against LeBeau's blitzes effectively, like he's done all year.
There was also some upwards pressure on Rodgers at O/U 18.5 completions. The thought process goes like this: Pittsburgh had the best defense in the NFL at avoiding explosive plays – no team in the NFL allowed fewer plays of 20 yards or more this year. We can expect Rodgers to have to throw underneath which equals more completions, not more yardage. The yardage prop (O/U 274.5) has not moved nearly as much as the “Over completions” has moved.
Jordy Nelson is attracting quite a bit of wise guy support at O/U 40.5 yards and O/U 3.5 catches. Again, the season long numbers suggest a bet on the Under, but current form demands a play on the Over. In two playoff games: Nelson has eight and four catches, for 79 and 67 yards. Like Green Bay's defense, the Steelers have shown vulnerability to third and fourth receivers with their blitzing schemes.
James Starks Over 16 carries. Bettors watched Starks unable to gain yardage or first downs as Green Bay struggled to run out the clock against the Bears in the NFC Championship Game. And they know that the Steelers had the No. 1 rushing defense in the NFL this year. That's why Starks Over 49.5 yards hasn't attracted as much attention as his number of carries. Green Bay is favored, so Starks should get his fair share of carries in the second half if the Packers try to run out the clock. In three playoff games, he's had 23, 25 and 22 rushing attempts, despite only getting 29 for the entire regular season. Bettors expect that current form to continue.
Heath Miller -23.5 receiving yards vs. John Kuhn: Money poured in on Miller: 23.5 -120, then 26.5 -120, then 28.5 -120. Money also came on Heath Miller over 37.5 receiving yards for the game. Green Bay’s defense is vulnerable to big days from opposing tight ends – their secondary does a dynamite job containing first and second receivers, but not so good against the tight ends going over the middle.
Ben Roethlisberger first half passing yards vs. second half passing yards: This line opened pick -120 on the second half, and immediately got hit with heavy money on the 2nd half. The thought process here is two-fold: Green Bay is favored and Pitt came out running vs. the Jets. Green Bay favored means that they should be leading at halftime, forcing Pittsburgh into a more pass heavy attack. Pittsburgh ran against the Jets and it worked, so expect a similar gameplan here resulting in fewer Roethlisberger pass attempts (and therefore passing yards) in the first half.
Every year, wise guys lay heavy juice on props that the squares love to hit at plus prices. The classic here is the “Will there be overtime?” The “No” has cashed every year since the Super Bowl started. Squares bet the “Yes” every year looking for the long shot score. Sharps happily lay -1100 to win $100 on the “No”.
Sharps bet the “No” on “Will Troy Polamalu record an interception” at -300. Polamalu is not going to be 100%; he was basically a non-factor in the first two playoff games. This is another type of heavy juice prop that professional bettors are willing to lay, while squares look for the plus price on the “Yes”.
It's a similar story on the “Will there be a safety” prop (also a near 10:1 shot), and the “Will either team score three straight times”, with the “Yes” (what wise guys bet) at -175 and the “No” at a nice plus price. Sharps also look to bet “Shortest touchdown of the game under 1.5 yards”, while squares bet that same prop Over 1.5 yards, even though it tends to be priced in the -115 range.
We've seen sharp money coming in on “Different Packers with a rushing attempt” Over 4. Green Bay's last eight games saw four with four rushers and four with five rushers. Those are very different recent numbers compared to their full season numbers. James Starks, Aaron Rodgers, John Kuhn and Brandon Jackson are virtual locks to get at least one carry, so this bet becomes something of a free roll: one end around or reverse and Over tickets cash. Pittsburgh was lined at 4.5 rushers; not taking anywhere near the same amount of Over money.
Some books opened Packers and Steelers O/U 6.5 different players with a reception. Hilton opened that prop O/U 7.5. Needless to say, the books that opened 6.5 are now Over -200 or higher.
Player to get first reception: Mike Wallace vs. Greg Jennings. Jennings got bet hard, now a heavy favorite. Current form shows a dramatic decline from Wallace in the playoffs, catching only four passes in Pittsburgh’s two wins. Meanwhile, the Packers targeted Jennings with their first two plays from scrimmage in the NFC Championship, and he finished the game with eight receptions for the second consecutive week.
Let's not forget those punters! Tim Masthay of Green Bay took some $$ with his longest punt Over 54.5 yards bet up to 55 -130 right from the get-go. Masthay also took some “no touchback” money, even at -200. He only had five touchbacks all year, compared to 25 punts downed inside the 20.
3 NBA Plays Today.
I have 3 plays on Monday night. One strong play on Indiana -8.5. Two regular plays Heat -17.5 and The Mavericks -10.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
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